新智元报道

AI 没有抢走任何人的工作。    

    Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi attends a Nagasaki Peace Ceremony to commemorate the 81st anniversary of the atomic bombing at the Peace Park in Nagasaki City on August 9, 2026. Photo: VCGJapanese officials and members of the public urged the government to uphold the Three Non-Nuclear principles and pursue a security policy that does not rely on nuclear weapons, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi maintained an ambiguous stance on the long-held policy during a speech on Sunday marking the 81st anniversary of the US atomic bombing of Nagasaki.
Chinese experts noted that, similar to her ambiguous remarks at the memorial ceremony in Hiroshima, Takaichi stopped short of making a clear commitment to maintaining the Three Non-Nuclear Principles in the future, as her government's stance on nuclear issues has sparked concern and anger among the Japanese public. They also warned that, given Japan's lack of thorough reflection on its wartime aggression, Tokyo's moves to dilute the Three Non-Nuclear Principles should raise alarm across the international community.
"Our country firmly upholds the three non-nuclear principles, and under the pledge that 'Nagasaki shall be the last city to suffer a nuclear attack,' we are promoting realistic and practical initiatives toward the realization of a world without nuclear weapons," Takaichi claimed, according to the Japan Times. 
But unlike previous prime ministers, many of whom had pledged that Japan would "continue to uphold" the principles, Takaichi merely described the government's current position without making an explicit commitment about the future, per the report.
As Hiroshima observed the 81st anniversary of the US atomic bombing of the city on Thursday, Takaichi also emphasized that Japan pledges to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons while upholding the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, despite Japanese media noting that she has left the door open for future revisions.
Takaichi's remarks in Hiroshima and Nagasaki that Japan upholds the three non-nuclear principles were largely seen as a reaffirmation of the country's existing policy position rather than a pledge to maintain the principles in the future, Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times. 
Liu said that currently, some Japanese officials' dangerous remarks on nuclear have sparked criticism among Japanese society. He pointed out that Takaichi only referred to Japan's current adherence to the principles, without explicitly committing to preserving them going forward. Her subsequent focus on broader goals such as achieving a "world without nuclear weapons" has further fueled questions over her actual policy intentions.
Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi claimed in an online program released in July that discussions on nuclear weapons were necessary to strengthen Japan's defense capabilities, according to Kyodo News. While acknowledging that the issue was difficult to discuss in Japan, he claimed it was something that "could not be avoided." 
Opposition to the Takaichi administration's nuclear-related moves has emerged across Japan, including from local governments, media organizations and civil society groups.
According to statistics from the Japanese Diet, at least 128 local assemblies across the country had submitted written opinions to the central government or parliament between Takaichi's inauguration on October 21 last year and July 28 this year, calling for the country's Three Non-Nuclear Principles to be upheld, according to Xinhua News Agency.
In an interview with the AFP, 82-year-old Satoshi Tanaka, a campaigner who survived the 1945 attack on Hiroshima expressed frustration that current political leaders like Takaichi are focusing on military capacity at the expense of diplomacy.
"There is so much talk about national security. What about building peace through diplomacy?" he said.
Responding to a question concerning the Japanese authorities are rebuilding Japan's war machine, seeking to revise the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, and pursuing nuclear sharing with the US, even the possession of nuclear weapons, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Thursday that the devastation and tragedies brought by nuclear weapons should never repeat themselves. That said, the particular context of the nuclear explosions should all the more be remembered and the lessons of Japanese militarism's aggression and expansion must forever serve as an alarm.
The Tokyo's moves on nuclear policy have also raised concerns in the international community.
Russia considers the rhetoric of Japanese authorities regarding the need for Japan to revise its Three Non-Nuclear Principles provocative and unacceptable, Russian Ambassador to Japan Nikolai Nozdrev said in an interview with RIA Novosti, which was published on Saturday. 
Responding to Koizumi's remarks on nuclear discussion, Nozdrev said "This is the first time in Japan's history, as the only country to have suffered atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, that a sitting defense minister has publicly called for lifting the 'taboo' on discussions related to nuclear weapons. We consider such rhetoric from official Tokyo provocative and absolutely unacceptable."
Japan has yet to fully reckon with its wartime aggression, thus any attempt by Tokyo to move toward acquiring nuclear weapons could pose serious risks to regional peace and global security, Lü Chao, an expert on the Korean Peninsula issue at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
Such concerns have become more pronounced as Japan increasingly portrays China as a major security challenge while highlighting perceived threats from other countries, against such a backdrop, any further steps to dilute the three non-nuclear principles are likely to heighten concerns internationally, particularly among countries that suffered from Japanese aggression during World War II, said Lü.
。至少到目前为止没有。这个结论来自 Anthropic 经济研究负责人 Peter McCrory 近日发布的一篇长文。

B |

https://x.com/PeterMcCrory/article/2079979321607745905经质量调整的 AI 产出在 2024 和 2025 年均增长超过 2000%，约五分之一的美国企业已在业务中使用 AI，但美国 6 月失业率仍然是 4.2%，恰好落在充分就业水平上。McCrory 的核心判断是：AI 目前仍是一种「技能偏向型、劳动力增强型」技术，它在放大人的能力，而不是替代人。

C | 他同时给这个判断标了有效期：12 个月。

数据不撒谎：

连 AI 高暴露岗位都没事McCrory 拉了一整条数据链来证明美国劳动力市场有多稳：失业率 4.2%，职位空缺与失业人数之比刚过 1，25 至 54 岁就业比例接近数十年高位，初请失业金人数连续四年低位运行。

D | 他认为，总体而言，美国就业形势稳中向好。总量数据只是起点，分组对照才见真章。

E | McCrory 与同事 Maxim Massenkoff 此前做过一项分析：把 Claude 被大量用来自动化的任务所对应的岗位单独拎出来，看它们的失业率是否比其他岗位恶化更快。答案是没有。用最新的劳动统计局数据更新，结论不变。软件工程类职位的招聘帖自 2025 年 5 月起反弹，涨幅甚至高于其他岗位的平均水平。唯一值得留意的是年轻劳动者。McCrory 承认，年轻人在 AI 高暴露岗位上求职确实变难了，斯坦福数字经济实验室的论文提供了类似证据。但他也指出一个容易被忽略的背景：2022 年至今，美国经历了有记录以来最大幅度的非衰退式劳动力市场降温，「低招聘、低裁员」格局本就最先挤压早期职业者。把这笔账全算到 AI 头上，证据不够。

为什么没抢走工作：

每个岗位都有 AI 搞不定的环节McCrory 的解释建立在 Anthropic 过去 18 个月多份研究报告的事实基础上，逻辑链条是这样的：第一层事实：在美国劳工部 O*NET 的全部职业分类中，没有任何一个岗位的所有关联任务被 Claude 系统性地完成。每个岗位都存在 AI 搞不定的环节：人际协调、面对面互动、与物理世界打交道。这些环节像木桶的短板，既限制了 AI 对整体生产力的提升幅度，也让能补上短板的人变得更值钱。第二层事实：AI 越强，对操控它的人的要求也越高。Anthropic 今年 1 月的 Economic Primitives 报告发现，Claude 产出越复杂，背后用户的输入专业度越高。模型做出复杂经济模型时，往往是一个能给出精准指令的专业用户在指挥。

https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-index-primitives3 月的 Learning Curves 报告显示，用 Claude 六个月之后，用户更多地把它当思维伙伴来用，交互成功率更高。

F | 如果 AI 已经强到能独立完成工作，这种学习效应不该出现。

G |

https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-index-march-2026-report第三层事实：即便到了 Agent 时代，人的价值依然稳固。Anthropic 分析了 Claude Code 七个月的使用数据，发现任务价值在持续攀升，但人类专业能力的回报没有下降：用户负责规划，把实现委派给 Claude；专业能力更强的用户，任务成功率更高，Claude 犯错时恢复也更快。纯编程实现的溢价可能正在缩水，但规划、判断和纠错的价值反而上升了。一个有趣的佐证来自用户自己的感受。Anthropic 6 月的经济指数调查里，超过三分之一的受访者预期 AI 在 12 个月内能完成自己大部分工作，但预期自己因此失业的比例明显更低。用 AI 自动化程度更高的那批用户，对薪资和工作安全感反而更乐观。

https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-index-june-2026-report

三种「奇点」和一道防线McCrory 对当下的判断是乐观的，但他没有回避三种可能打破现有格局的未来场景。它们在学术文献和行业讨论中分别被称为软件奇点、经济奇点和科斯奇点。

https://x.com/MTSlive/status/2090610614154764509软件奇点指的是 AI 自动化创新本身。过去的通用技术再强大，内燃机造不出新的交通方式；但 AI 被直接赋予了通用认知能力，理论上可以反过来加速自身迭代。McCrory 原文明确讨论了这一场景：递归自我改进（RSI）一旦成立，AI 能力的提升将脱离人类控制的节奏。经济奇点是软件奇点的经济学后果。McCrory 援引 Aghion、Jones 和 Jones 2017 年的模型指出，如果创新过程本身被自动化，标准经济模型会预测出「有限时间内的无限增长」。这个结论听起来像科幻，但它是严格的数学推演。

H | 科斯奇点则瞄准另一个维度。NBER 2025 年的一篇论文（Shahidi、Rusak、Manning 等人合著）提出，当 Agent 把搜索、谈判、签约和监督等交易成本压到接近零时，Ronald Coase 1937 年的经典问题就会被重新激活——市场协调的成本一旦消失，企业存在的理由也就动摇了。

I |

https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c15309/c15309.pdfMcCrory 讨论的 Agent 场景天然与这一框架对话：如果 Agent 不只改变生产方式，还改变组织形态，劳动力市场的影响将远不止「谁丢了工作」这么简单。面对三种奇点，McCrory 给出的防线是同一道：「弱环节」。这个概念来自 Aghion、Jones 和 Jones 的论文——经济增长的上限不由做得最好的环节决定，而由那些不可或缺却难以改进的环节决定。

J |

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23928/w23928.pdf只要存在始终无法被自动化的关键任务，无论是技术瓶颈还是社会约束，劳动收入份额就不会崩塌，企业形态也不会彻底解体。

K | 编程 Agent 的现状已经在验证这条逻辑。McCrory 引用的数据显示，引入编程 Agent 后代码行数增长了 10 到 20 倍，但软件发布量只增加了 30%，应用实际使用量没有任何增长。代码只是软件生产的一环，测试、架构设计、产品判断这些环节仍然卡在人手上，它们就是当前的「弱环节」。

L | McCrory 给出了明确的预测：一年后美国的失业率不会因为 AI 而明显上升。这个判断的有效期是 12 个月，验证信号也很清晰——观察 AI 高暴露岗位的失业率是否开始偏离其他岗位，以及 Agent 场景中人类专业能力的回报是否开始下降。两个指标同时转向的那天，他自己搭建的这套分析框架也需要被修正。